[Draft] feat(vardiff): add in-process simulation framework + baseline regression tests

.github/workflows/vardiff-sim.yaml

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+name: vardiff_sim
+
+on:
+  pull_request:
+    branches:
+      - main
+    paths:
+      - 'sv2/channels-sv2/sim/**'
+      - 'sv2/channels-sv2/src/vardiff/**'
+      - 'sv2/channels-sv2/src/target.rs'
+      - '.github/workflows/vardiff-sim.yaml'
+
+jobs:
+  # Fast tests in the sim crate. Always run.
+  test-fast:
+    name: cargo test --lib
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    defaults:
+      run:
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+
+      - name: Install stable Rust
+        uses: dtolnay/rust-toolchain@stable
+        id: toolchain
+
+      # The repo root's `rust-toolchain.toml` pins 1.75, but the sim
+      # crate's Cargo.lock is v4 format (needs newer rustup). Override
+      # explicitly so the sim crate gets the stable toolchain.
+      - name: Override toolchain
+        run: rustup override set ${{ steps.toolchain.outputs.name }}
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+      - name: Cache cargo registry
+        uses: actions/cache@v3
+        with:
+          path: |
+            ~/.cargo/registry
+            ~/.cargo/git
+            sv2/channels-sv2/sim/target
+          key: ${{ runner.os }}-vardiff-sim-${{ hashFiles('sv2/channels-sv2/sim/Cargo.lock') }}
+
+      - name: Build sim crate
+        run: cargo build --release --verbose
+
+      - name: Fast unit tests
+        run: cargo test --lib --verbose
+
+  # Slow regression check: cargo test --release --lib -- --ignored runs
+  # the full 50-cell × 1000-trial baseline regression. ~15-20s.
+  # The current algorithm's behavior is asserted against the checked-in
+  # baseline_VardiffState.toml with CI-aware tolerance budgets.
+  test-regression:
+    name: regression vs checked-in baseline
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    defaults:
+      run:
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+
+      - name: Install stable Rust
+        uses: dtolnay/rust-toolchain@stable
+        id: toolchain
+
+      # The repo root's `rust-toolchain.toml` pins 1.75, but the sim
+      # crate's Cargo.lock is v4 format (needs newer rustup). Override
+      # explicitly so the sim crate gets the stable toolchain.
+      - name: Override toolchain
+        run: rustup override set ${{ steps.toolchain.outputs.name }}
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+      - name: Cache cargo registry
+        uses: actions/cache@v3
+        with:
+          path: |
+            ~/.cargo/registry
+            ~/.cargo/git
+            sv2/channels-sv2/sim/target
+          key: ${{ runner.os }}-vardiff-sim-regression-${{ hashFiles('sv2/channels-sv2/sim/Cargo.lock') }}
+
+      - name: Slow regression test
+        run: cargo test --release --lib -- --ignored
+
+  # Verify that the binaries still build (compare-algorithms,
+  # generate-baseline, trace-trial, sweep-ewma-tau). Doesn't run them
+  # (full sweep takes ~150s).
+  build-binaries:
+    name: cargo build --release (all bins)
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    defaults:
+      run:
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+
+      - name: Install stable Rust
+        uses: dtolnay/rust-toolchain@stable
+        id: toolchain
+
+      # The repo root's `rust-toolchain.toml` pins 1.75, but the sim
+      # crate's Cargo.lock is v4 format (needs newer rustup). Override
+      # explicitly so the sim crate gets the stable toolchain.
+      - name: Override toolchain
+        run: rustup override set ${{ steps.toolchain.outputs.name }}
+        working-directory: sv2/channels-sv2/sim
+
+      - name: Cache cargo registry
+        uses: actions/cache@v3
+        with:
+          path: |
+            ~/.cargo/registry
+            ~/.cargo/git
+            sv2/channels-sv2/sim/target
+          key: ${{ runner.os }}-vardiff-sim-bins-${{ hashFiles('sv2/channels-sv2/sim/Cargo.lock') }}
+
+      - name: Build all binaries
+        run: cargo build --release --bins --verbose

asymmetric_poisson_sweep.md

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+# AsymmetricPoissonCI Sweep Results
+
+## Comprehensive Fitness
+
+| Algorithm | Avg | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 30 |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| AsymPoisson-t300 | 0.846 | 0.858 | 0.872 | 0.882 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AsymPoisson-t250 | 0.844 | 0.852 | 0.866 | 0.879 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AsymPoisson-t200 | 0.822 | 0.799 | 0.821 | 0.801 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AsymPoisson-t150 | 0.807 | 0.743 | 0.771 | 0.784 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AsymPoisson-t125 | 0.803 | 0.730 | 0.766 | 0.778 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AsymPoisson-t100 | 0.795 | 0.706 | 0.744 | 0.758 | 0.779 | 0.792 | 0.811 | 0.894 | 0.877 |
+| AdaptiveBoundary-spm10 | 0.788 | 0.689 | 0.742 | 0.756 | 0.771 | 0.788 | 0.802 | 0.885 | 0.872 |
+| FullRemedy | 0.740 | 0.705 | 0.723 | 0.724 | 0.733 | 0.745 | 0.752 | 0.763 | 0.774 |
+
+## Operational Fitness
+
+| Algorithm | Avg | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 30 |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| AsymPoisson-t300 | 0.807 | 0.823 | 0.841 | 0.853 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AsymPoisson-t250 | 0.805 | 0.815 | 0.833 | 0.848 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AsymPoisson-t200 | 0.777 | 0.748 | 0.776 | 0.752 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AsymPoisson-t150 | 0.758 | 0.678 | 0.714 | 0.731 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AsymPoisson-t125 | 0.754 | 0.662 | 0.707 | 0.722 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AsymPoisson-t100 | 0.744 | 0.633 | 0.680 | 0.697 | 0.724 | 0.740 | 0.764 | 0.868 | 0.847 |
+| AdaptiveBoundary-spm10 | 0.735 | 0.611 | 0.677 | 0.695 | 0.714 | 0.735 | 0.752 | 0.856 | 0.840 |
+| FullRemedy | 0.675 | 0.631 | 0.653 | 0.656 | 0.667 | 0.682 | 0.690 | 0.704 | 0.717 |

sv2/channels-sv2/sim/.gitignore

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+# Build artifacts (sim is its own Cargo workspace; root .gitignore
+# covers the parent workspace's target/, this entry covers ours).
+/target
+
+# macOS finder noise
+.DS_Store
+
+# Editor swap files
+*.swp
+*.swo
+*~
+
+# Locally generated reports & traces — regenerate via `cargo run`, no
+# need to track. The checked-in baselines are explicitly named.
+/trace-*.txt
+/scratch-*
+# Sweep/comparison reports and charts (regenerate via the sweep / radar
+# / trajectory bins; the analysis lives in commit messages / docs, not
+# the raw output files).
+/*_sweep.md
+/*_sweep_big.md
+/confirm_*.md
+/champion_weights.md
+/*.svg
+/compare_out*/
+/sweep_out/
+
+# Optional: cargo-semver-checks scratch directory
+.semver-checks/