[Draft] feat(vardiff): add in-process simulation framework + baseline regression tests#2154

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gimballock wants to merge 40 commits into

stratum-mining:mainfrom

marafoundation:vardiff/simulation-framework

Commits on Jun 4, 2026

feat(vardiff): inject Clock trait + add_shares trait method

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feat(vardiff_sim): in-process simulation framework for vardiff characterization

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data(vardiff_sim): design doc + baseline characterization of VardiffState

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feat(vardiff_sim): four-axis algorithm decomposition + characterization

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feat(vardiff_sim): pareto report, floors in TL;DR, CI on rates, MD columns + CI workflow

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feat(channels_sv2): promote four-axis composed/ from sim to production

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chore(vardiff_sim): clippy + rustfmt + CI toolchain fixes

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feat(vardiff): retune FullRemedy default to η=0.2 + add (η, z) Pareto sweep binaries
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feat(vardiff): add top-level default() factory + deprecate VardiffState::new
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fix(channels_sv2): widen hash_rate_from_target multiply to U512
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feat(vardiff): three-stage pipeline, AdaCUSUM algorithm, operational metrics

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feat(vardiff): AsymmetricCusumBoundary — directional cost awareness

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chore: fix formatting and regenerate regression baseline

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feat(vardiff/sim): add asymmetry preference to fitness + upward_step_magnitude metric

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refactor(vardiff/sim): revamp fitness weights for harm-avoidance priority

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feat(vardiff_sim): counter-age-aware algorithm evaluation

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feat(vardiff): PID investigation yields AcceleratingPartialRetarget

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feat(vardiff): promote AcceleratingPartialRetarget to production

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fix(vardiff): revert to EwmaEstimator for production

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fix(mining_sv2): add missing error code constant for extended channel rejection

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fix(vardiff): use CumulativeCounter for production

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fix(vardiff): make EwmaEstimator safe for per-share observe() calls

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feat(vardiff): promote EwmaEstimator to production now that observe() is fixed

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feat(vardiff): add ckpool algorithm investigation and per-share decay_time simulation

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fix(mining_sv2): remove duplicate error code constant after rebase

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style: apply rustfmt to vardiff modules

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chore(vardiff_sim): regenerate regression baseline for current algorithm

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Commits on Jun 6, 2026

feat(vardiff): adaptive boundary — PoissonCI at low SPM, CUSUM at high SPM

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docs(vardiff): update ckpool investigation with hysteresis sweep and estimator equivalence test

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Commits on Jun 8, 2026

refactor(vardiff): rename transition_shares to spm_threshold

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Commits on Jun 10, 2026

feat(vardiff): add AsymmetricPoissonCI boundary + parameter sweep

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Commits on Jun 18, 2026

feat(vardiff): derived algorithm naming, equal-weight radar, and two Pareto-optimal vardiff configs

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feat(vardiff): generalize dual-mode boundary, fix react_priority low-SPM collapse

Eric Price
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Commits on Jun 19, 2026

fix(vardiff): revert production VardiffState to the classic algorithm

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feat(sim): §10 log-error regret/effort metric + theory writeup

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feat(sim): regret/effort sweep, weight analysis, and trajectory viz bins

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feat(vardiff): SignPersist champion — fix ramp-up & settle-bias

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feat(vardiff): WarmupBoundary primitive + cold-start warm-up negative result

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feat(vardiff): DebiasEstimator + settle-gap-is-optimal result

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Commits on Jun 20, 2026

docs(sim): vardiff metric derivation white paper

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