Merge predictions v0

.env.example

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ HOTKEY_NAME=default
 WANDB_API_KEY=
 # for issue bounties api calls
 GITTENSOR_VALIDATOR_PAT=
-# Optional custom name for wandb logging 
+# Optional custom name for wandb logging
 WANDB_VALIDATOR_NAME=vali
 
 # ******* MINER VARIABLES *******

.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE/weight_adjustment.md

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+## Weight Adjustment PR
+
+### Changes Summary
+
+| Metric               | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
+| -------------------- | ---- | ------ | ------ | ----- |
+| Repositories Added   | 0    | 0      | 0      | 0     |
+| Repositories Removed | 0    | 0      | 0      | 0     |
+| Weights Modified     | 0    | 0      | 0      | 0     |
+| Net Weight Change    | 0    | 0      | 0      | 0     |
+
+### Added Repositories
+
+<!-- Delete this section if none -->
+
+| Repository | Tier   | Branch | Weight |
+| ---------- | ------ | ------ | ------ |
+| owner/repo | silver | main   | 20.00  |
+
+### Removed Repositories
+
+<!-- Delete this section if none -->
+
+| Repository | Tier   | Reason |
+| ---------- | ------ | ------ |
+| owner/repo | silver | —      |
+
+### Justification
+
+<!-- Explain why these weight changes are being made -->
+
+### Additional Acceptable Branches
+
+<!--
+If this PR adds entries to additional_acceptable_branches for any repository,
+you MUST provide a link to a MERGED pull request in the target repository
+that demonstrates the contributor follows the workflow/pattern used in that repo.
+
+Without this proof, the additional branch will not be approved.
+
+Example:
+- `feature-branch` for `owner/repo`: https://github.com/owner/repo/pull/123 (merged)
+-->
+
+- [ ] No additional_acceptable_branches changes in this PR
+- [ ] Proof of merged PR(s) provided above for all additional_acceptable_branches entries
+
+### Checklist
+
+- [ ] Changes summary table is filled in accurately
+- [ ] Net weight changes are justified in the Justification section
+- [ ] Added repositories have correct tier, branch, and initial weight

.gitignore

@@ -16,6 +16,12 @@ wandb
 
 *.log
 
+# Merge predictions local DB
+merge-prediction-data/
+gt-merge-preds.db
+gt-merge-preds.db-wal
+gt-merge-preds.db-shm
+
 CLAUDE.md
 .claude/
 .vscode/

docker-compose.vali.yml

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ services:
     volumes:
       # 'ro' = readonly
       - ${WALLET_PATH}:/root/.bittensor/wallets:ro
+      - ./merge-prediction-data:/app/data
     # optional: uncomment this if you are running validator database
     # networks:
     #   - gittensor_network

gittensor/__init__.py

@@ -16,6 +16,6 @@
 # DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.
 
 # NOTE: bump this value when updating the codebase
-__version__ = '4.0.0'
+__version__ = '5.0.0'
 version_split = __version__.split('.')
 __spec_version__ = (1000 * int(version_split[0])) + (10 * int(version_split[1])) + (1 * int(version_split[2]))

gittensor/classes.py

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
 
 from gittensor.constants import MIN_TOKEN_SCORE_FOR_BASE_SCORE
 from gittensor.utils.utils import parse_repo_name
-from gittensor.validator.configurations.tier_config import Tier, TierConfig, TierStats
+from gittensor.validator.oss_contributions.tier_config import Tier, TierConfig, TierStats
 
 GITHUB_DOMAIN = 'https://github.com/'
 

gittensor/cli/issue_commands/helpers.py

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
 import click
 from rich.console import Console
 from rich.panel import Panel
+from substrateinterface import SubstrateInterface
 
 from gittensor.cli.issue_commands.tables import build_pr_table
 from gittensor.constants import CONTRACT_ADDRESS
@@ -43,7 +44,6 @@
     'Cancelled': 'dim',
 }
 
-ISSUE_BOUNTY_ELIGIBLE_STATUSES = {'registered', 'active'}
 
 # Default paths
 GITTENSOR_DIR = Path.home() / '.gittensor'
@@ -193,16 +193,21 @@ def print_issue_submission_table(
     console.print(f'Showing {len(pull_requests)} submissions{suffix}')
 
 
-def verify_miner_registration(ws_endpoint: str, contract_addr: str, hotkey_ss58: str) -> bool:
-    """Return whether the hotkey is registered on the subnet configured by the contract netuid."""
-    import bittensor as bt
-    from substrateinterface import SubstrateInterface
+def resolve_netuid_from_contract(ws_endpoint: str, contract_addr: str) -> Optional[int]:
+    """Read the subnet netuid stored in the on-chain contract."""
 
     substrate = SubstrateInterface(url=ws_endpoint)
     packed = _read_contract_packed_storage(substrate, contract_addr)
-    netuid = None
     if packed and packed.get('netuid') is not None:
-        netuid = int(packed['netuid'])
+        return int(packed['netuid'])
+    return None
+
+
+def verify_miner_registration(ws_endpoint: str, contract_addr: str, hotkey_ss58: str) -> bool:
+    """Return whether the hotkey is registered on the subnet configured by the contract netuid."""
+    import bittensor as bt
+
+    netuid = resolve_netuid_from_contract(ws_endpoint, contract_addr)
     if netuid is None:
         return False
 
@@ -796,21 +801,18 @@ def fetch_issue_from_contract(
     ws_endpoint: str,
     contract_addr: str,
     issue_id: int,
-    require_active: bool = False,
     verbose: bool = False,
 ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    """Resolve an on-chain issue and validate bountied/active status."""
+    """Resolve an on-chain issue and validate bountied status."""
     issues = read_issues_from_contract(ws_endpoint, contract_addr, verbose)
     issue = next((i for i in issues if i.get('id') == issue_id), None)
     if not issue:
         raise click.ClickException(f'Issue ID {issue_id} not found on-chain.')
 
     status = issue.get('status') or ''
     status_normalized = str(status).strip().lower()
-    if status_normalized not in ISSUE_BOUNTY_ELIGIBLE_STATUSES:
+    if status_normalized not in {'registered', 'active'}:
         raise click.ClickException(f'Issue #{issue_id} is not in a bountied state (status: {status}).')
-    if require_active and status_normalized != 'active':
-        raise click.ClickException(f'Issue #{issue_id} is not active (status: {status}).')
 
     repo = issue.get('repository_full_name', '')
     issue_number = issue.get('issue_number', 0)

gittensor/cli/issue_commands/predict.py

@@ -7,6 +7,8 @@
 
 import click
 
+from gittensor.miner.broadcast import broadcast_predictions
+
 from .help import StyledCommand
 from .helpers import (
     _is_interactive,
@@ -24,6 +26,7 @@
     print_network_header,
     print_success,
     print_warning,
+    resolve_netuid_from_contract,
     resolve_network,
     success_panel,
     validate_issue_id,
@@ -137,6 +140,10 @@ def issues_predict(
     ws_endpoint, network_name = resolve_network(network, rpc_url)
     effective_wallet, effective_hotkey = _resolve_wallet_identity(wallet_name, wallet_hotkey)
 
+    netuid = resolve_netuid_from_contract(ws_endpoint, contract_addr)
+    if netuid is None:
+        handle_exception(as_json, 'Could not resolve netuid from contract.')
+
     if not as_json:
         print_network_header(network_name, contract_addr)
         console.print(f'Wallet: {effective_wallet}/{effective_hotkey}\n')
@@ -173,17 +180,7 @@ def issues_predict(
             print_warning('Prediction cancelled')
             return
 
-    # 7) Interactive mode: verify miner first to avoid wasting manual input.
-    if is_interactive_mode:
-        _resolve_registered_miner_hotkey(
-            wallet_name=effective_wallet,
-            wallet_hotkey=effective_hotkey,
-            ws_endpoint=ws_endpoint,
-            contract_addr=contract_addr,
-            as_json=as_json,
-        )
-
-    # 8) Collect predictions by mode; validate PR membership for non-interactive modes.
+    # 7) Collect predictions by mode; validate PR membership for non-interactive modes.
     try:
         if is_interactive_mode:
             predictions = _collect_predictions_interactive(pull_requests)
@@ -193,39 +190,51 @@ def issues_predict(
     except (click.ClickException, click.BadParameter) as e:
         handle_exception(as_json, str(e))
 
-    # 9) Single/batch modes: verify miner after prediction payload validation.
-    if not is_interactive_mode:
-        _resolve_registered_miner_hotkey(
-            wallet_name=effective_wallet,
-            wallet_hotkey=effective_hotkey,
-            ws_endpoint=ws_endpoint,
-            contract_addr=contract_addr,
-            as_json=as_json,
-        )
-
-    payload = build_prediction_payload(
-        issue_id=issue_id,
-        repository=repo_full_name,
-        predictions=predictions,
-    )
-
-    # 10) Emit machine output or interactive confirmation flow.
-    if as_json:
-        emit_json(payload, pretty=True)
-        broadcast_predictions_stub(payload)
-        return
+    payload = {
+        'issue_id': issue_id,
+        'repository': repo_full_name,
+        'predictions': dict(predictions),
+        'github_access_token': '***',
+    }
 
-    if is_interactive_mode:
+    # 8) Confirmation prompt (interactive only).
+    if not as_json and is_interactive_mode:
         lines = format_prediction_lines(predictions)
         confirm_panel(lines, title='Prediction Confirmation')
         skip_confirm = yes or not _is_interactive()
         if not skip_confirm and not click.confirm('Proceed?', default=True):
             print_warning('Prediction cancelled')
             return
 
-    success_panel(json_mod.dumps(payload, indent=2), title='Prediction Payload')
-    print_success('Prediction prepared (TODO: broadcast)')
-    broadcast_predictions_stub(payload)
+    # 9) Verify miner registration before broadcasting.
+    _resolve_registered_miner_hotkey(
+        wallet_name=effective_wallet,
+        wallet_hotkey=effective_hotkey,
+        ws_endpoint=ws_endpoint,
+        contract_addr=contract_addr,
+        as_json=as_json,
+    )
+
+    # 10) Show payload and broadcast to validators.
+    if as_json:
+        emit_json(payload, pretty=True)
+
+    if not as_json:
+        success_panel(json_mod.dumps(payload, indent=2), title='Prediction Synapse')
+
+    with loading_context('Broadcasting predictions to validators...', as_json):
+        results = broadcast_predictions(
+            payload=payload,
+            wallet_name=effective_wallet,
+            wallet_hotkey=effective_hotkey,
+            ws_endpoint=ws_endpoint,
+            netuid=netuid,
+        )
+
+    if as_json:
+        emit_json(results, pretty=True)
+    else:
+        _print_broadcast_results(results)
 
 
 def validate_probability(value: float, param_hint: str = 'probability') -> float:
@@ -285,9 +294,7 @@ def _resolve_issue_context(
     """Load and validate on-chain issue context for prediction."""
     try:
         with loading_context('Reading issues from contract...', as_json):
-            issue = fetch_issue_from_contract(
-                ws_endpoint, contract_addr, issue_id, require_active=True, verbose=verbose
-            )
+            issue = fetch_issue_from_contract(ws_endpoint, contract_addr, issue_id, verbose=verbose)
     except click.ClickException as e:
         handle_exception(as_json, str(e))
 
@@ -361,22 +368,22 @@ def format_prediction_lines(predictions: dict[int, float]) -> str:
     return '\n'.join(lines)
 
 
-def build_prediction_payload(
-    issue_id: int,
-    repository: str,
-    predictions: dict[int, float],
-) -> dict[str, object]:
-    """Build validated payload for future network broadcast."""
-    return {
-        'issue_id': issue_id,
-        'repository': repository,
-        'predictions': dict(predictions),
-    }
-
+def _print_broadcast_results(results: dict[str, object]) -> None:
+    """Print broadcast results in human-readable format."""
+    if results.get('error'):
+        print_error(str(results['error']))
+        return
+    if results.get('success'):
+        print_success(f'Prediction accepted by {results["accepted"]}/{results["total_validators"]} validator(s)')
+    else:
+        print_error(
+            f'Prediction rejected or unreachable: {results["rejected"]}/{results["total_validators"]} validator(s)'
+        )
 
-def broadcast_predictions_stub(payload: dict[str, object]) -> None:
-    """Broadcast integration seam (stub)."""
-    pass
+    for r in results.get('results', []):
+        status = 'accepted' if r['accepted'] else 'rejected'
+        reason = f' ({r["rejection_reason"]})' if r.get('rejection_reason') else ''
+        console.print(f'  {r["validator"]}... {status}{reason}')
 
 
 def _collect_predictions_interactive(prs: list[dict]) -> dict[int, float]:

gittensor/cli/issue_commands/submissions.py

@@ -83,9 +83,7 @@ def issues_submissions(
 
     try:
         with loading_context('Fetching issue from contract...', as_json):
-            issue = fetch_issue_from_contract(
-                ws_endpoint, contract_addr, issue_id, require_active=False, verbose=verbose
-            )
+            issue = fetch_issue_from_contract(ws_endpoint, contract_addr, issue_id, verbose=verbose)
     except click.ClickException as e:
         handle_exception(as_json, str(e))
 

gittensor/constants.py

@@ -139,4 +139,25 @@
 # =============================================================================
 CONTRACT_ADDRESS = '5FWNdk8YNtNcHKrAx2krqenFrFAZG7vmsd2XN2isJSew3MrD'
 ISSUES_TREASURY_UID = 111  # UID of the smart contract neuron, if set to RECYCLE_UID then it's disabled
-ISSUES_TREASURY_EMISSION_SHARE = 0.15  # % of emissions routed to funding issues treasury
+ISSUES_TREASURY_EMISSION_SHARE = 0.15  # % of emissions allocated to funding issues treasury
+
+# =============================================================================
+# Merge Predictions
+# =============================================================================
+PREDICTIONS_EMISSIONS_SHARE = 0.15  # % of emissions allocated to prediction competition
+
+PREDICTIONS_EMA_BETA = 0.1  # EMA decay rate for predictions record
+PREDICTIONS_CORRECTNESS_EXPONENT = 3  # exponent on correctness to harshly punish incorrect predictions
+PREDICTIONS_TIMELINESS_EXPONENT = 1.8  # curve for early prediction bonus. higher = sharper curve. 1.0 = linear
+PREDICTIONS_MAX_TIMELINESS_BONUS = 0.75  # max bonus for earliest predictions
+PREDICTIONS_MAX_CONSENSUS_BONUS = 0.25  # max bonus for pre-convergence predictions
+PREDICTIONS_MAX_ORDER_BONUS = 0.75  # max bonus for first correct predictor (applies to merged PR only)
+PREDICTIONS_ORDER_CORRECTNESS_THRESHOLD = 0.66  # min raw correctness to qualify for order bonus
+# variance threshold for full rewards
+# if variance across predictions never exceeds this threshold, the solution must be 'obvious'
+PREDICTIONS_CONSENSUS_VARIANCE_TARGET = 0.2
+
+# Cooldown & Limits
+PREDICTIONS_COOLDOWN_SECONDS = 900  # 15 min cooldown per miner per PR re-prediction
+PREDICTIONS_MIN_VALUE = 0.0
+PREDICTIONS_MAX_VALUE = 1.0