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mc/3841/setup/non-prediction-values #3842

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7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/app/(main)/aggregation-explorer/components/continuous_aggregations_chart.tsx
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@lsabor lsabor Nov 28, 2025 •
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Is there a better way to handle this? None of these instances should actually ever trigger. Should I just handle their values down the line by "value || 0.0" for instance?

It might be possible to create different Question types each with unique Forecast values, so we could skip having to verify there are no "null" values for continuous questions. I'm unsure if that makes things more complicated with little benefit, though.

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@hlbmtc hlbmtc Dec 2, 2025

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I assume in this place we’re just rendering data coming from the backend, so there’s no actual validation happening. In this line we throw an error that blocks further rendering, and I don’t think that’s useful for the user since they can’t do anything about it

Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -84,7 +84,12 @@ const ContinuousAggregationChart: FC<Props> = ({
if (historyItem) {
charts.push({
pmf: cdfToPmf(historyItem.forecast_values),
cdf: historyItem.forecast_values,
cdf: historyItem.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
Comment on lines +87 to +92
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@ncarazon ncarazon Dec 3, 2025

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I’m not totally sure about throwing an error here – is it necessary to hard-fail if there’s a null in forecast_values?
If we do want this guard, could we move the check higher up so we don’t have to duplicate it in every chart?

type: "community",
});
}
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion ...nsumer_question_view/prediction/single_question_prediction/binary_question_prediction.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ const QuestionInfo: React.FC<{

const getYesProbability = (
q: QuestionWithNumericForecasts
): number | undefined => {
): number | null | undefined => {
if (q.type !== QuestionType.Binary) return undefined;
const values =
q.aggregations?.[q.default_aggregation_method]?.latest?.forecast_values;
Expand Down
14 changes: 12 additions & 2 deletions front_end/src/components/charts/continuous_area_chart.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -1127,7 +1127,12 @@ export function getContinuousAreaChartData({
if (latest && isForecastActive(latest)) {
chartData.push({
pmf: cdfToPmf(latest.forecast_values),
cdf: latest.forecast_values,
cdf: latest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
type: (isClosed ? "community_closed" : "community") as ContinuousAreaType,
});
}
Expand All @@ -1141,7 +1146,12 @@ export function getContinuousAreaChartData({
} else if (!!userForecast && isForecastActive(userForecast)) {
chartData.push({
pmf: cdfToPmf(userForecast.forecast_values),
cdf: userForecast.forecast_values,
cdf: userForecast.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
type: "user" as ContinuousAreaType,
});
}
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions front_end/src/components/charts/histogram.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -21,8 +21,8 @@ import ChartContainer from "./primitives/chart_container";

type HistogramProps = {
histogramData: { x: number; y: number }[];
median: number | undefined;
mean: number | undefined;
median: number | null | undefined;
mean: number | null | undefined;
color: "blue" | "gray";
width?: number;
};
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7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/charts/minified_continuous_area_chart.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -607,7 +607,12 @@ export function getContinuousAreaChartData({
if (latest && isForecastActive(latest)) {
chartData.push({
pmf: cdfToPmf(latest.forecast_values),
cdf: latest.forecast_values,
cdf: latest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
type: (isClosed ? "community_closed" : "community") as ContinuousAreaType,
});
}
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7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/conditional_tile/conditional_chart.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -146,7 +146,12 @@ const ConditionalChart: FC<Props> = ({
? [
{
pmf: cdfToPmf(aggregateLatest.forecast_values),
cdf: aggregateLatest.forecast_values,
cdf: aggregateLatest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
type: "community" as ContinuousAreaType,
},
]
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7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/forecast_maker/continuous_input/continuous_prediction_chart.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -133,7 +133,12 @@ const ContinuousPredictionChart: FC<Props> = ({
if (showCP && latestAggLatest && isForecastActive(latestAggLatest)) {
charts.push({
pmf: cdfToPmf(latestAggLatest.forecast_values),
cdf: latestAggLatest.forecast_values,
cdf: latestAggLatest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
type:
question.status === QuestionStatus.CLOSED
? "community_closed"
Expand Down
14 changes: 12 additions & 2 deletions ...nents/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_conditional/forecast_maker_conditional_continuous.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -676,15 +676,25 @@ const ForecastMakerConditionalContinuous: FC<Props> = ({
).cdf;
const userPreviousCdf: number[] | undefined =
overlayPreviousForecast && previousForecast
? previousForecast.forecast_values
? previousForecast.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
})
: undefined;
const aggregateLatest =
activeOptionData?.question.aggregations[
activeOptionData.question.default_aggregation_method
].latest;
const communityCdf: number[] | undefined =
aggregateLatest && isForecastActive(aggregateLatest)
? aggregateLatest.forecast_values
? aggregateLatest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
})
: undefined;

const predictButtonIsDisabled =
Expand Down
18 changes: 14 additions & 4 deletions front_end/src/components/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_group/continuous_input_wrapper.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -194,7 +194,12 @@ const ContinuousInputWrapper: FC<PropsWithChildren<Props>> = ({
[option]
);

const rawPreviousCdf = previousForecast?.forecast_values;
const rawPreviousCdf = previousForecast?.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
});
const showWithdrawnRow = option.wasWithdrawn && !option.isDirty;
const showPreviousRowByCheckbox =
!showWithdrawnRow && overlayPreviousForecast;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -238,9 +243,14 @@ const ContinuousInputWrapper: FC<PropsWithChildren<Props>> = ({

const withdraw = () => onWithdraw();

const communityCdf: number[] | undefined =
option.question.aggregations[option.question.default_aggregation_method]
.latest?.forecast_values;
const communityCdf: number[] | undefined = option.question.aggregations[
option.question.default_aggregation_method
].latest?.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
});

const questionDuration =
new Date(option.question.scheduled_close_time).getTime() -
Expand Down
7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion ...nd/src/components/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_group/forecast_maker_group_continuous.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -598,7 +598,12 @@ const ForecastMakerGroupContinuous: FC<Props> = ({
questionId: id,
forecastEndTime: forecastExpirationToDate(forecastExpiration),
forecastData: {
continuousCdf: latest.forecast_values,
continuousCdf: latest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
probabilityYesPerCategory: null,
probabilityYes: null,
},
Expand Down
23 changes: 20 additions & 3 deletions ...t_end/src/components/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_question/forecast_maker_continuous.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -131,7 +131,12 @@ const ForecastMakerContinuous: FC<Props> = ({

const overlayPreviousCdf =
overlayPreviousForecast && previousForecast?.forecast_values
? previousForecast.forecast_values
? previousForecast.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
})
: undefined;

// Update states of forecast maker after new forecast is made
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -210,12 +215,24 @@ const ForecastMakerContinuous: FC<Props> = ({
const userCdf: number[] = dataset.cdf;
const userPreviousCdf: number[] | undefined =
overlayPreviousForecast && previousForecast
? previousForecast.forecast_values
? previousForecast.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
})
: undefined;
const latest =
question.aggregations[question.default_aggregation_method].latest;
const communityCdf: number[] | undefined =
latest && isForecastActive(latest) ? latest?.forecast_values : undefined;
latest && isForecastActive(latest)
? latest?.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
})
: undefined;

const handleAddComponent = () => {
setSliderDistributionComponents([
Expand Down
7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/post_card/multiple_choice_tile/index.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -363,7 +363,12 @@ function generateReaffirmData({
const hasActivePrediction = latest && isForecastActive(latest);

if (hasActivePrediction) {
forecastValues = latest.forecast_values;
forecastValues = latest.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
});
}

return {
Expand Down
7 changes: 6 additions & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/post_card/question_tile/question_continuous_tile.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -107,7 +107,12 @@ const QuestionContinuousTile: FC<Props> = ({
{
questionId: question.id,
forecastData: {
continuousCdf: activeForecast.forecast_values,
continuousCdf: activeForecast.forecast_values.map((v) => {
if (v === null) {
throw new Error("Forecast values contain null values");
}
return v;
}),
probabilityYes: null,
probabilityYesPerCategory: null,
},
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion front_end/src/components/prediction_chip.tsx
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Expand Up @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ type Size = "compact" | "large";
type Props = {
question: QuestionWithForecasts;
status: PostStatus;
predictionOverride?: number; // override displayed CP (e.g. for graph cursor), otherwise the latest CP is used
predictionOverride?: number | null; // override displayed CP (e.g. for graph cursor), otherwise the latest CP is used
size?: Size;
className?: string;
chipClassName?: string;
Expand Down
12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions front_end/src/types/question.ts
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Expand Up @@ -87,10 +87,10 @@ export type Forecast = {
question_id: number;
start_time: number;
end_time: number | null;
forecast_values: number[];
interval_lower_bounds: number[] | null;
centers: number[] | null;
interval_upper_bounds: number[] | null;
forecast_values: (number | null)[];
interval_lower_bounds: (number | null)[] | null;
centers: (number | null)[] | null;
interval_upper_bounds: (number | null)[] | null;
};

export type ScoreData = {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -155,9 +155,9 @@ export type UserForecastHistory = {
export type AggregateForecast = Forecast & {
method: AggregationMethod;
forecaster_count: number;
means: number[] | null;
means: (number | null)[] | null;
histogram: number[][] | null;
forecast_values: number[] | null;
forecast_values: (number | null)[] | null;
};

export type AggregateForecastHistory = {
Expand Down
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions front_end/src/utils/formatters/prediction.ts
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Expand Up @@ -401,9 +401,9 @@ export function getUserPredictionDisplayValue({
return "...";
}

let center: number | undefined;
let lower: number | undefined = undefined;
let upper: number | undefined = undefined;
let center: number | null | undefined;
let lower: number | null | undefined = undefined;
let upper: number | null | undefined = undefined;
if (questionType === QuestionType.Binary) {
center = closestUserForecast.forecast_values[1];
} else {
Expand Down
30 changes: 20 additions & 10 deletions front_end/src/utils/math.ts
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Expand Up @@ -64,14 +64,18 @@ function logisticCDF(
);
}

export function cdfToPmf(cdf: number[]) {
export function cdfToPmf(cdf: (number | null)[]) {
const pdf = [];
/* eslint-disable @typescript-eslint/no-non-null-assertion */
for (let i = 0; i < cdf.length; i++) {
const value = cdf[i]!;
if (value === null) {
throw new Error("CDF contains null values");
}
if (i === 0) {
pdf.push(cdf[i]!);
pdf.push(value);
} else {
pdf.push(cdf[i]! - cdf[i - 1]!);
pdf.push(value - cdf[i - 1]!);
}
}
pdf.push(1 - cdf[cdf.length - 1]!);
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -111,36 +115,40 @@ export function cdfFromSliders(
}

export function computeQuartilesFromCDF(
cdf: number[],
cdf: (number | null)[],
extendedQuartiles: true,
discrete?: boolean
): ExtendedQuartiles;
export function computeQuartilesFromCDF(
cdf: number[],
cdf: (number | null)[],
extendedQuartiles?: false,
discrete?: boolean
): Quartiles;
export function computeQuartilesFromCDF(cdf: number[]): Quartiles;
export function computeQuartilesFromCDF(
cdf: number[],
cdf: (number | null)[],
extendedQuartiles?: boolean,
discrete?: boolean
): Quartiles | ExtendedQuartiles {
function findPercentile(cdf: number[], percentile: number) {
function findPercentile(cdf: (number | null)[], percentile: number) {
if (cdf === null) {
cdf = [];
}
const target = percentile / 100;
for (let i = 0; i < cdf.length; i++) {
/* eslint-disable @typescript-eslint/no-non-null-assertion */
if (cdf[i]! >= target) {
const value = cdf[i]!;
if (value === null) {
throw new Error("CDF contains null values");
}
if (value >= target) {
if (i === 0) return 0;

if (discrete) {
return (i - 0.5) / (cdf.length - 1);
}

const diff = cdf[i]! - cdf[i - 1]!;
const diff = value - cdf[i - 1]!;
const adjustedPercentile = (target - cdf[i - 1]!) / diff;
return (i - 1 + adjustedPercentile) / (cdf.length - 1);
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -172,7 +180,9 @@ export function computeQuartilesFromCDF(
}
}

export function getCdfBounds(cdf: number[] | undefined): Bounds | undefined {
export function getCdfBounds(
cdf: (number | null)[] | undefined
): Bounds | undefined {
if (!cdf) {
return;
}
Expand Down
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