improve logic for question.already_forecasted

forecasting_tools/data_models/questions.py

@@ -126,7 +126,16 @@ def from_metaculus_api_json(cls, post_api_json: dict) -> MetaculusQuestion:
 
         try:
             history = question_json["my_forecasts"]["history"]
-            is_forecasted = history is not None and len(history) > 0
+            has_history = history is not None and len(history) > 0
+            current_utc_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            previous_forecast = history[-1] if has_history else None
+            end_time = (
+                datetime.fromtimestamp(previous_forecast["end_time"], tz=timezone.utc)
+                if previous_forecast
+                else None
+            )
+            is_forecasted = not (end_time and end_time > current_utc_time)
+
         except Exception:
             is_forecasted = False
 

forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/official_bots/fall_template_bot.py

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import argparse
 import asyncio
 import logging
-from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from datetime import datetime
 from typing import Literal
 
 from forecasting_tools.agents_and_tools.research.smart_searcher import SmartSearcher
@@ -205,25 +205,21 @@ async def _get_question_prediction_info(
 
         previous_forecasts = question.previous_forecasts
         if (
-            question_type in ["parent", "child"]
+            question.already_forecasted
+            and question_type in ["parent", "child"]
             and previous_forecasts
             and question_type not in self.force_reforecast_in_conditional
         ):
             # TODO: add option to not affirm current parent/child forecasts, create new forecast
             previous_forecast = previous_forecasts[-1]
-            current_utc_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
-            if (
-                previous_forecast.timestamp_end is None
-                or previous_forecast.timestamp_end > current_utc_time
-            ):
-                pretty_value = DataOrganizer.get_readable_prediction(previous_forecast)
-                return (
-                    ReasonedPrediction(
-                        prediction_value=PredictionAffirmed(),
-                        reasoning=f"Already existing forecast reaffirmed at {pretty_value}.",
-                    ),
-                    research,
-                )
+            pretty_value = DataOrganizer.get_readable_prediction(previous_forecast)
+            return (
+                ReasonedPrediction(
+                    prediction_value=PredictionAffirmed(),
+                    reasoning=f"Already existing forecast reaffirmed at {pretty_value}.",
+                ),
+                research,
+            )
         info = await self._make_prediction(question, research)
         full_research = self._add_reasoning_to_research(research, info, question_type)
         return info, full_research