scenarios.py

"""
scenarios.py
============
Historical DeFi crisis scenario library.
Each scenario defines parameters used by the NLP/script generator and EVM sandbox.
"""

from typing import Dict, Any, List

SCENARIOS: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {

    "dex_arbitrage": {
        "id": "dex_arbitrage",
        "label": "⚖️ DEX Arbitrage",
        "description": "Exploiting price differences for the same asset across decentralized exchanges. Monitor DEXs, detect token priced lower on Exchange A, buy on A, sell on B. Capture spread minus gas.",
        "tags": ["arbitrage", "mev", "spread"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["Arbitrage traders execute high volume swaps", "Pool price tightly tracking oracle"]
    },

    "sandwich_attack": {
        "id": "sandwich_attack",
        "label": "🥪 Sandwich Attack (MEV)",
        "description": "Extracting profit from large pending trades by placing trades before and after them. MEV searcher detects large trade in mempool, buys before, victim pushes price, MEV sells immediately after.",
        "tags": ["mev", "sandwich", "frontrun", "slippage"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["MEV bots massively increase swap frequency", "High retail slippage detected"]
    },
    
    "liquidation_sniping": {
        "id": "liquidation_sniping",
        "label": "🎯 Liquidation Sniping",
        "description": "Liquidating undercollateralized loans to earn bonus reward. Monitor lending positions. Detect when collateral ratio falls. Repay debt, receive discounted collateral.",
        "tags": ["liquidation", "mev", "lending"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["MEV/Whale accounts trigger liquidations", "Sudden price drops due to collateral selloffs"]
    },

    "backrun_arbitrage": {
        "id": "backrun_arbitrage",
        "label": "🏃 Backrun Arbitrage",
        "description": "Profiting from price impact caused by large swaps. Large trade shifts AMM price. Bot executes trade immediately after to restore pool equilibrium and capture price difference.",
        "tags": ["mev", "backrun", "arbitrage"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["MEV bots follow whale transactions tightly", "Spread neutralizes rapidly"]
    },

    "stablecoin_peg_arb": {
        "id": "stablecoin_peg_arb",
        "label": "💵 Stablecoin Peg Arbitrage",
        "description": "Exploiting temporary deviation of stablecoin from 1 dollar peg. Stablecoin trades below peg. Whales/Arbs buy at discount, redeem or sell when peg restores.",
        "tags": ["stablecoin", "depeg", "arbitrage"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["Heavy buying pressure on USDC", "Whales and Institutions step in heavily"]
    },

    "spread_capture": {
        "id": "spread_capture",
        "label": "📈 Spread Capture (Market Making)",
        "description": "Earning profit from continuous bid-ask spread. Post buy and sell orders simultaneously to earn the difference. Hedge exposure if necessary.",
        "tags": ["market-making", "liquidity", "hedging"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["Market Maker activity volume increases drastically", "Tiny, continuous, bidirectional swaps"]
    },

    "yield_farming": {
        "id": "yield_farming",
        "label": "🚜 Yield Farming Panic",
        "description": "Depositing funds in high APY protocols to earn rewards. Suddenly APY drops, causing a massive exit and panic selloff of the reward token.",
        "tags": ["retail", "yield", "panic", "dump"],
        "expected_outcomes": ["Retail traders mass exit positions", "Token liquidity drains rapidly"]
    },

    # ── HISTORICAL CRISIS SCENARIOS ────────────────────────────────── #

    "bitcoin_halving": {
        "id": "bitcoin_halving",
        "label": "⛏️ Bitcoin Halving (2012–2024)",
        "title": "Bitcoin Halving — Supply Shock Bull Run",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the supply-shock dynamics following a Bitcoin halving event. "
            "Block rewards are cut by 50%, sharply reducing new token issuance. "
            "Institutional and retail whales front-run the supply squeeze, purchasing "
            "large positions. Oracle prices are pushed upward. Mirrors the 2016 "
            "($650 → $20,000) and 2020 ($8,000 → $69,000) post-halving bull cycles."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["supply-shock", "bull-run", "bitcoin", "halving"],
        "risk_focus": ["oracle", "supply", "liquidity"],
        "steps": 80,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 500000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 200000, "speed": "gradual", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 300000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 3.0,  "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",     "magnitude": 0.1,  "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 8.0,  "duration_steps": 30},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Whale accumulation drives sustained price appreciation",
            "Oracle price spikes 3x–8x post-halving",
            "Reduced token supply flow creates liquidity tightening"
        ]
    },

    "ico_boom_2017": {
        "id": "ico_boom_2017",
        "label": "🚀 ICO Boom (2017)",
        "title": "ICO Speculative Mania — ETH & Token Explosion",
        "description": (
            "Replicate the 2017 ICO mania when ETH surged from ~$8 to ~$1,400. "
            "Retail speculators poured capital into every new token launch, driving "
            "explosive price appreciation. Liquidity concentrates in a handful of "
            "trending tokens while long-tailed ICO tokens see parabolic and then "
            "catastrophic swings."
        ),
        "actor": "retail",
        "tags": ["speculative-mania", "ico", "ethereum", "retail"],
        "risk_focus": ["liquidity", "volatility", "oracle"],
        "steps": 60,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 5000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 10000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 8000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 20000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "hyperinflation", "magnitude": 0.5,  "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 5.0,  "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 10.0, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.4,  "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Extreme retail buy pressure drives oracle price 10x",
            "Liquidity pools experience rapid inflow then fragmentation",
            "Volatility spikes as speculative fever peaks"
        ]
    },

    "defi_summer_2020": {
        "id": "defi_summer_2020",
        "label": "🌞 DeFi Summer (2020)",
        "title": "DeFi Summer — Yield Farming Liquidity Surge",
        "description": (
            "Model the DeFi Summer 2020 regime where liquidity-mining incentives "
            "drove 10x–100x price increases for UNI, AAVE, COMP and similar tokens. "
            "Yield farmers chase high APYs, depositing enormous capital, pushing "
            "token prices skyward. When yields compress, rapid exit events and "
            "liquidity crunches follow."
        ),
        "actor": "retail",
        "tags": ["yield-farming", "defi", "liquidity-mining", "apy"],
        "risk_focus": ["yield", "liquidity", "oracle"],
        "steps": 70,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 50000,  "speed": "gradual", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "borrow",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 30000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 100000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 25000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 4.0,  "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 10.0, "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.5,  "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.4,  "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "TVL surges as yield farmers flood the protocol",
            "Token price inflates 10x on liquidity-mining incentives",
            "Sudden APY compression causes rapid capital exodus"
        ]
    },

    "nft_mania_2021": {
        "id": "nft_mania_2021",
        "label": "🎨 NFT Mania (2021)",
        "title": "NFT Mania — Speculative Demand on ETH & SOL",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the 2021 NFT frenzy that drove Solana from ~$2 to ~$260 and "
            "lifted Ethereum gas fees to record highs. Retail and whale actors compete "
            "to accumulate NFT-linked tokens, minting artificial scarcity. "
            "Network adoption explodes, driving oracle prices to unsustainable levels "
            "before a sharp correction sets in."
        ),
        "actor": "retail",
        "tags": ["nft", "speculative-mania", "ethereum", "solana", "retail"],
        "risk_focus": ["volatility", "oracle", "liquidity"],
        "steps": 60,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "ETH",   "amount": 10000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 5000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 15000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 15.0, "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",     "magnitude": 0.1,  "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 30.0, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.5,  "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Oracle price surges 30x reflecting NFT-driven demand",
            "Retail competition creates extreme gas price and slippage",
            "Post-mania correction wipes 50% of speculative gains"
        ]
    },

    "tesla_btc_purchase_2021": {
        "id": "tesla_btc_purchase_2021",
        "label": "🚗 Tesla BTC Purchase (2021)",
        "title": "Tesla Bitcoin Purchase — Corporate Treasury Shock",
        "description": (
            "Model the market impact of Tesla's $1.5B BTC purchase in February 2021, "
            "which caused a ~20% single-day price jump. An institutional whale enters "
            "a massive position, signalling corporate treasury adoption. Other institutions "
            "and retail traders rush to follow, amplifying the initial shock."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["corporate-adoption", "bitcoin", "institutional", "treasury"],
        "risk_focus": ["oracle", "volatility", "liquidity"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 1500000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 500000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike", "magnitude": 1.2, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",  "magnitude": 0.0, "duration_steps": 3},
            {"type": "price_spike", "magnitude": 1.4, "duration_steps": 10},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Single-day price jump of 20%+ on institutional buy signal",
            "Copycat retail and institutional buying extends the rally",
            "Oracle trails the rapid price movement causing brief lag"
        ]
    },

    "bitcoin_etf_approval_2024": {
        "id": "bitcoin_etf_approval_2024",
        "label": "📋 Bitcoin ETF Approval (2024)",
        "title": "Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval — Institutional Inflows",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the January 2024 US spot Bitcoin ETF approval that unlocked "
            "massive institutional access to BTC. Regulated ETF products channel "
            "billions in fresh capital into the market. Liquidity deepens significantly "
            "while oracle prices are pushed upward by sustained institutional demand."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["regulatory-approval", "etf", "bitcoin", "institutional"],
        "risk_focus": ["liquidity", "oracle", "regulatory"],
        "steps": 50,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 5000000, "speed": "gradual", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 2000000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "deposit", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 3000000, "speed": "slow",    "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 1.5, "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",     "magnitude": 0.1, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 2.0, "duration_steps": 20},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Institutional inflows drive sustained price appreciation",
            "Liquidity depth increases significantly with ETF demand",
            "Oracle adjusts upward in a controlled, sustained move"
        ]
    },

    "mt_gox_collapse_2014": {
        "id": "mt_gox_collapse_2014",
        "label": "💀 Mt. Gox Collapse (2014)",
        "title": "Mt. Gox Exchange Collapse — 85% BTC Price Crash",
        "description": (
            "Replicate the catastrophic Mt. Gox failure of February 2014, where the "
            "world's largest Bitcoin exchange halted withdrawals and declared insolvency "
            "after ~850,000 BTC were found missing. Bitcoin fell ~85% from ~$1,200 to "
            "~$180. Simulate mass withdrawals, forced liquidations, and a cascading "
            "price collapse driven by counterparty panic."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["exchange-failure", "bitcoin", "hack", "insolvency", "collapse"],
        "risk_focus": ["solvency", "liquidity", "oracle"],
        "steps": 60,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 800000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "liquidate", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 200000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 100000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.40, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.70, "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.85, "duration_steps": 20},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "85% oracle price collapse as exchange insolvency spreads",
            "Mass withdrawal requests drain protocol liquidity",
            "Cascading liquidations accelerate price discovery downward"
        ]
    },

    "dao_hack_2016": {
        "id": "dao_hack_2016",
        "label": "🔓 DAO Hack (2016)",
        "title": "TheDAO Reentrancy Exploit — ETH Smart Contract Drain",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the June 2016 DAO hack where an attacker exploited a reentrancy "
            "vulnerability to drain 3.6M ETH (~$70M at the time) from TheDAO. ETH fell "
            "~35%. The incident triggered an Ethereum hard fork, creating Ethereum Classic. "
            "An attacker uses a flash loan to fund the exploit, repeatedly drains the vault "
            "before reentrancy guards fire, then governance splits the community."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["smart-contract-exploit", "reentrancy", "ethereum", "dao", "flash-loan"],
        "risk_focus": ["flash_loan", "governance", "solvency"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "flash_loan", "token": "ETH",   "amount": 3600000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "drain",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 3600000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "governance_vote", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 1, "speed": "rapid", "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop", "magnitude": 0.35, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "oracle_lag", "magnitude": 0.1,  "duration_steps": 5},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Flash loan funded reentrancy drains vault in a single block",
            "ETH oracle price drops 35% on exploit discovery",
            "Governance emergency vote triggers protocol hard fork"
        ]
    },

    "china_crypto_ban_2021": {
        "id": "china_crypto_ban_2021",
        "label": "🇨🇳 China Crypto Ban (2021)",
        "title": "China Mining & Trading Ban — 50% BTC Crash",
        "description": (
            "Model the regulatory shock when China announced a blanket ban on crypto "
            "mining and trading in May–September 2021. Bitcoin fell ~50%, hash rate "
            "dropped ~50%, and Chinese miners dumped holdings to cover migration costs. "
            "Simulate the sudden capital flight, whale sell-off, and regulatory-driven "
            "liquidity crisis across the protocol."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["regulatory-crackdown", "china", "bitcoin", "mining-ban"],
        "risk_focus": ["liquidity", "oracle", "regulatory"],
        "steps": 50,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 300000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",     "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 200000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "withdraw", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 150000, "speed": "gradual", "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.30, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.40, "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.50, "duration_steps": 20},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "50% oracle price decline on regulatory exit shock",
            "Mining token holders liquidate en masse",
            "Liquidity drains as Chinese participants are forced to exit"
        ]
    },

    "terra_luna_collapse_2022": {
        "id": "terra_luna_collapse_2022",
        "label": "🌑 Terra Luna Collapse (2022)",
        "title": "Terra/LUNA Death Spiral — Algorithmic Stablecoin Collapse",
        "description": (
            "Replicate the May 2022 Terra ecosystem collapse where UST lost its $1 peg "
            "and LUNA fell from ~$80 to near $0 within days. An attacker dumps UST, "
            "triggering the algorithmic mint-burn death spiral. As UST depegs further, "
            "the LUNA supply hyperinflates to absorb sell pressure, accelerating the "
            "collapse. Panic selling and mass liquidations drain all liquidity."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["stablecoin-collapse", "death-spiral", "terra", "luna", "depeg", "algorithmic"],
        "risk_focus": ["stablecoin", "liquidity", "oracle", "solvency"],
        "steps": 80,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",      "token": "USDC",  "amount": 500000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 50000000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "liquidate", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 10000000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 200000000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "depeg",          "magnitude": 0.20, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.60, "duration_steps": 15},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.80, "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "depeg",          "magnitude": 0.99, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.99, "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "UST depegs from $1 triggering algorithmic mint spiral",
            "LUNA oracle price collapses 99% in days",
            "Protocol liquidity fully drained as panic accelerates"
        ]
    },

    "ftx_collapse_2022": {
        "id": "ftx_collapse_2022",
        "label": "🏦 FTX Collapse (2022)",
        "title": "FTX Exchange Bankruptcy — Market-Wide Contagion",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the November 2022 FTX collapse, where revelations of insolvency "
            "and fraud caused FTT to fall from ~$25 to near $0 and BTC dropped ~25% "
            "within days. Mass customer withdrawals exhausted liquidity. The contagion "
            "spread to counterparties forcing emergency liquidations. Simulates a "
            "confidence crisis-driven bank run on the protocol."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["exchange-bankruptcy", "ftx", "insolvency", "contagion", "fraud"],
        "risk_focus": ["solvency", "liquidity", "oracle"],
        "steps": 60,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 1000000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "liquidate", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 500000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 300000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 700000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.25, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.60, "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.50, "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "FTT price collapses 99% on insolvency disclosure",
            "BTC and wider market falls 25% on contagion fears",
            "Mass bank-run withdrawals expose protocol insolvency"
        ]
    },

    "celsius_bankruptcy_2022": {
        "id": "celsius_bankruptcy_2022",
        "label": "🧊 Celsius Bankruptcy (2022)",
        "title": "Celsius Network Bankruptcy — Lending Platform Failure",
        "description": (
            "Model the June 2022 Celsius Network bankruptcy after it froze customer "
            "withdrawals. Celsius had deployed user deposits into illiquid DeFi positions "
            "and suffered heavy losses. $CEL token collapsed. Simulate the withdrawal "
            "freeze, leveraged position unwind, and forced liquidation cascade that "
            "exposed the platform's structural insolvency."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["lending-failure", "celsius", "bankruptcy", "liquidity-crisis", "leverage"],
        "risk_focus": ["lending", "solvency", "liquidity"],
        "steps": 60,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 2000000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "borrow",    "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 1000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "liquidate", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 500000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.50, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.80, "duration_steps": 20},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.70, "duration_steps": 15},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "CEL token collapses on withdrawal freeze announcement",
            "Over-leveraged lending positions cascade into liquidation",
            "80% liquidity drain exposes deep protocol insolvency"
        ]
    },

    "svb_collapse_2023": {
        "id": "svb_collapse_2023",
        "label": "🏛️ SVB Collapse — USDC Depeg (2023)",
        "title": "Silicon Valley Bank Collapse — USDC Reserve Contagion",
        "description": (
            "Model the March 2023 SVB bank run and its downstream effect on USDC, "
            "which temporarily depegged to ~$0.88 after Circle disclosed $3.3B of USDC "
            "reserves were held at SVB. Institutional actors rushed to exit USDC "
            "positions, overwhelming liquidity. Simulate the reserve-exposure panic, "
            "mass USDC redemptions, and stablecoin depeg event."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["banking-contagion", "usdc", "depeg", "svb", "stablecoin"],
        "risk_focus": ["stablecoin", "liquidity", "oracle"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw", "token": "USDC",  "amount": 3300000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",     "token": "USDC",  "amount": 1000000000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "depeg",          "magnitude": 0.12, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.35, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "depeg",          "magnitude": 0.06, "duration_steps": 5},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "USDC depegs to $0.88 on reserve contagion disclosure",
            "Mass institutional USDC redemptions drain protocol reserves",
            "Peg partially restores after SVB backstop is confirmed"
        ]
    },

    "covid_crash_2020": {
        "id": "covid_crash_2020",
        "label": "🦠 COVID Market Crash (2020)",
        "title": "COVID-19 Black Thursday — 50% BTC Crash in 48 Hours",
        "description": (
            "Replicate Black Thursday (March 12–13, 2020) when Bitcoin fell ~50% in "
            "48 hours as global markets panic-sold all risk assets following COVID-19 "
            "lockdown announcements. MakerDAO CDP liquidations overwhelmed the system, "
            "ETH was auctioned for $0. Simulate the sudden global liquidity shock, "
            "mass deleveraging, and cascading liquidation cascade."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["global-shock", "covid", "black-thursday", "liquidation", "bitcoin"],
        "risk_focus": ["liquidity", "volatility", "solvency"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "withdraw",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 500000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "liquidate", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 200000, "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "swap",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 300000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.30, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.50, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.60, "duration_steps": 10},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "BTC falls 50% in under 48 hours on risk-off panic",
            "Cascading liquidations overwhelm vault solvency mechanisms",
            "60% liquidity drain in the critical 48-hour window"
        ]
    },

    "ronin_bridge_hack_2022": {
        "id": "ronin_bridge_hack_2022",
        "label": "🌉 Ronin Bridge Hack (2022)",
        "title": "Ronin Bridge Exploit — $600M Cross-Chain Theft",
        "description": (
            "Simulate the March 2022 Ronin Bridge exploit where the Lazarus Group "
            "drained ~$600M (173,600 ETH + 25.5M USDC) by compromising 5 of 9 "
            "validator private keys. AXS dropped sharply on the news. An attacker "
            "exploits trusted bridge validator consensus to authorize fraudulent "
            "withdrawals, draining the protocol entirely before detection."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["bridge-exploit", "ronin", "axs", "hack", "cross-chain"],
        "risk_focus": ["flash_loan", "bridge", "liquidity", "solvency"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "flash_loan", "token": "ETH",   "amount": 173600, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "drain",      "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 600000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "withdraw",   "token": "USDC",  "amount": 25500000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.40, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.80, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.60, "duration_steps": 10},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "Bridge drained of $600M via compromised validator keys",
            "AXS token price drops 40–60% on exploit announcement",
            "Cross-chain liquidity permanently removed from protocol"
        ]
    },

    "poly_network_hack_2021": {
        "id": "poly_network_hack_2021",
        "label": "🕷️ Poly Network Hack (2021)",
        "title": "Poly Network Exploit — $600M Cross-Protocol Drain (Returned)",
        "description": (
            "Model the August 2021 Poly Network exploit where an attacker exploited "
            "a smart contract vulnerability in cross-chain message verification to steal "
            "~$600M across ETH, BSC, and Polygon. Uniquely, the attacker returned all "
            "funds after negotiation. Simulate the initial exploit-and-drain attack, "
            "the resulting price panic, and the eventual protocol recovery path."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["defi-exploit", "poly-network", "cross-chain", "flash-loan", "hack"],
        "risk_focus": ["flash_loan", "oracle", "solvency"],
        "steps": 40,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "flash_loan",     "token": "ETH",   "amount": 600000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "drain",          "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 600000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "oracle_update",  "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 0.01,      "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_drop",  "magnitude": 0.40, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",  "magnitude": 0.1,  "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "price_spike", "magnitude": 1.1,  "duration_steps": 10},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "All cross-chain pools drained in a single transaction bundle",
            "Token prices drop 40% then partially recover on fund return",
            "Oracle manipulation locks protocol state during attack window"
        ]
    },

    "mango_markets_exploit_2022": {
        "id": "mango_markets_exploit_2022",
        "label": "🥭 Mango Markets Exploit (2022)",
        "title": "Mango Markets Oracle Manipulation — Governance Drain",
        "description": (
            "Replicate the October 2022 Mango Markets exploit where Avraham Eisenberg "
            "used $10M USDC to manipulate the MNGO token price 10x via wash trades, "
            "then used the inflated collateral value to borrow and drain $114M from "
            "the DAO treasury. He then passed a governance vote to have all charges "
            "dropped in exchange for partial fund return. Simulate price oracle "
            "manipulation, collateral fraud, and governance capture."
        ),
        "actor": "whale",
        "tags": ["oracle-manipulation", "governance", "mango", "exploit", "collateral-fraud"],
        "risk_focus": ["oracle", "governance", "flash_loan", "lending"],
        "steps": 50,
        "actions": [
            {"type": "swap",            "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 10000000,  "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "manipulate_price","token": "TOKEN", "amount": 10000000,  "speed": "rapid",   "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "borrow",          "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 114000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "vault"},
            {"type": "drain",           "token": "USDC",  "amount": 114000000, "speed": "instant", "target": "pool"},
            {"type": "governance_vote", "token": "TOKEN", "amount": 1,         "speed": "rapid",   "target": "vault"},
        ],
        "market_events": [
            {"type": "price_spike",    "magnitude": 10.0, "duration_steps": 5},
            {"type": "oracle_lag",     "magnitude": 0.2,  "duration_steps": 3},
            {"type": "price_drop",     "magnitude": 0.80, "duration_steps": 10},
            {"type": "liquidity_drain","magnitude": 0.90, "duration_steps": 5},
        ],
        "expected_outcomes": [
            "MNGO oracle price pumped 10x via wash trades in minutes",
            "Inflated collateral allows $114M treasury drain via borrow",
            "Governance vote passes to legally protect attacker"
        ]
    },
}


def list_scenarios() -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
    """Return lightweight list for UI dropdown."""
    return [
        {
            "id":          s["id"],
            "label":       s["label"],
            "description": s["description"],
            "tags":        s["tags"],
            "expected_outcomes": s["expected_outcomes"],
        }
        for s in SCENARIOS.values()
    ]


def get_scenario(scenario_id: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
    if scenario_id not in SCENARIOS:
        raise ValueError(f"Unknown scenario: {scenario_id}")
    return SCENARIOS[scenario_id]